[SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia]. / Modelo SIR de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a prognostic SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A SIR model with a deterministic approach was used to forecast the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. The states considered were susceptible (S), infectious (i) and recovered or deceased (R). Population data were obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) - Population Projections 2018-2020, released in January 2020-, and data on daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the National Institute of Health. Different models were proposed varying the basic reproduction number (R0). RESULTS: Based on the cases reported by the Ministry of Health, 4 simulated environments were created in an epidemiological SIR model. The time series was extended until May 30, the probable date when 99% of the population will be infected. R0=2 is the basic reproduction number and the closest approximation to the behavior of the pandemic during the first 15 days since the first case report; the worst scenario would occur in the first week of April with R0=3. CONCLUSIONS: Further mitigation and suppression measures are necessary in the containment and sustained transmission phases, such as increased diagnostic capacity through testing and disinfection of populated areas and homes in isolation.

Features and outcomes of adolescent deliveries during COVID-19 pandemic - a bicentric study

Introduction: adolescent pregnancies represent a global public health problem associated with multiple consequences on the well-being of young mothers, their babies and general population. The biggest prevalence of adolescent pregnancies in Europe can be found in southeastern countries. Objective(s): to analyze the features and outcomes of adolescent deliveries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Material(s) and Method(s): retrospective, descriptive study of adolescent mothers delivered in the period 01.01.2020-31.12.2021 in two university medical centers: the Emergency Clinical County Hospital of Arad (Romania), and Clinic of Gynecology and Obstetrics of University Clinical Center of Vojvodina (Serbia). Demographic and anthropometric parameters of adolescent mothers, number and way of delivery, birth weight and Apgar score of neonate, COVID-19 status and data about pathologies and complications associated with pregnancy and delivery were collected from medical records and analyzed statistically using IBM SPSS. Result(s): there were total of 458 adolescent mothers, aged between 12 and 17 (average 16.07+/-1.07 year). From urban environment there were 182 (60.3%) cases and from rural 276 (39.7%) cases. Number of previous pregnancies and births ranged from 0-3, with majority of mothers being primiparas (76.2%). Cesarean section was performed in 40.8%, vaginal birth in 59.2%. The most common indications for cesarean section were maternal-pelvic disproportion, transverse lie or deflected cephalic presentation, twin pregnancies, severe fetal distress, preeclampsia, scarred uterus with risk of rupture and premature placental abruption. The average fetal weight at birth was 3010.22g ranging from 860 to 4500 g. The average Apgar score was 8.73. There were 9.66% of premature labors. There were 9 (2%) positive COVID-19 cases at birth and additional 4 (0.9%) cases who had COVID-19 during pregnancy. We observed a very high percentage (73.86%) of pregnancies without adequate prenatal care. Conclusion(s): Adolescent mothers are prone to develop complications compared to general population. The COVID-19 pandemic might have additional negative influence on the addressability of underage mothers to medical care, this phenomenon being the basis of most complications during pregnancy. Effective interventions, better sexual education and social programs are needed to reduce the number of adolescent mothers and to help them get a much better social reinsertion and an increase in the general quality of life.Copyright © 2023

Modelo SIR de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Colombia

RESUMEN Objetivo Desarrollar un modelo SIR pronóstico de la pandemia de COVID-19 en el territorio colombiano. Métodos Se utilizó un modelo SIR con enfoque determinístico para pronosticar el desarrollo de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Colombia. Los estados considerados fueron susceptibles (S), infecciosos (i) y recuperados o fallecidos (R). Los datos poblacionales se obtuvieron del Departamento Administrativo Nacional de estadística (Proyecciones de Población 2018-2020, difundida en enero de 2020) y los datos sobre casos diarios confirmados de COVID-19 del Instituto Nacional de Salud. Se plantearon diferentes modelos variando el número básico de reproducción (R0). Resultados A partir de los casos reportados por el Ministerio de Salud se crearon cuatro ambientes o escenarios simulados en un modelo SIR epidemiológico, se extendieron las series de tiempo hasta el 30 de mayo, fecha probable del 99% de infección poblacional. Un R0 de 2 es la aproximación más cercana al comportamiento de la pandemia durante los primeros 15 días desde el reporte del caso 0, el peor escenario se daría en la primera semana de abril con un R0 igual a 3. Conclusiones Se hacen necesarias nuevas medidas de mitigación y supresión en las fases de contención y transmisión sostenida, como aumento de la capacidad diagnostica por pruebas y desinfección de zonas pobladas y hogares de aislamiento.(AU) ABSTRACT Objective To develop a prognostic SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. Materials and Methods A SIR model with a deterministic approach was used to forecast the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. The states considered were susceptible (S), infectious (i) and recovered or deceased (R). Population data were obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) - Population Projections 2018-2020, released in January 2020-, and data on daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the National Institute of Health. Different models were proposed varying the basic reproduction number (R0). Results Based on the cases reported by the Ministry of Health, 4 simulated environments were created in an epidemiological SIR model. The time series was extended until May 30, the probable date when 99% of the population will be infected. R0=2 is the basic reproduction number and the closest approximation to the behavior of the pandemic during the first 15 days since the first case report;the worst scenario would occur in the first week of April with R0=3. Conclusions Further mitigation and suppression measures are necessary in the containment and sustained transmission phases, such as increased diagnostic capacity through testing and disinfection of populated areas and homes in isolation.(AU)

SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia / Modelo SIR de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Colombia / Modelo SIR da pandemia de COVID-19 na Colômbia

RESUMEN Objetivo Desarrollar un modelo SIR pronóstico de la pandemia de COVID-19 en el territorio colombiano. Métodos Se utilizó un modelo SIR con enfoque determinístico para pronosticar el desarrollo de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Colombia. Los estados considerados fueron susceptibles (S), infecciosos (i) y recuperados o fallecidos (R). Los datos poblacionales se obtuvieron del Departamento Administrativo Nacional de estadística (Proyecciones de Población 2018-2020, difundida en enero de 2020) y los datos sobre casos diarios confirmados de COVID-19 del Instituto Nacional de Salud. Se plantearon diferentes modelos variando el número básico de reproducción (R0). Resultados A partir de los casos reportados por el Ministerio de Salud se crearon cuatro ambientes o escenarios simulados en un modelo SIR epidemiológico, se extendieron las series de tiempo hasta el 30 de mayo, fecha probable del 99% de infección poblacional. Un R0 de 2 es la aproximación más cercana al comportamiento de la pandemia durante los primeros 15 días desde el reporte del caso 0, el peor escenario se daría en la primera semana de abril con un R0 igual a 3. Conclusiones Se hacen necesarias nuevas medidas de mitigación y supresión en las fases de contención y transmisión sostenida, como aumento de la capacidad diagnostica por pruebas y desinfección de zonas pobladas y hogares de aislamiento.

ABSTRACT Objective To develop a prognostic SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. Materials and Methods A SIR model with a deterministic approach was used to forecast the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. The states considered were susceptible (S), infectious (i) and recovered or deceased (R). Population data were obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) - Population Projections 2018-2020, released in January 2020-, and data on daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the National Institute of Health. Different models were proposed varying the basic reproduction number (R0). Results Based on the cases reported by the Ministry of Health, 4 simulated environments were created in an epidemiological SIR model. The time series was extended until May 30, the probable date when 99% of the population will be infected. R0=2 is the basic reproduction number and the closest approximation to the behavior of the pandemic during the first 15 days since the first case report; the worst scenario would occur in the first week of April with R0=3. Conclusions Further mitigation and suppression measures are necessary in the containment and sustained transmission phases, such as increased diagnostic capacity through testing and disinfection of populated areas and homes in isolation.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Desenvolver um modelo SIR prognóstico da pandemia de COVID-19 no território colombiano. MÉTODOS Um modelo SIR com abordagem determinística foi usado para prever o desenvolvimento da pandemia de COVID-19 na Colômbia. Os estados considerados foram suscetíveis (S), infecciosos (i) e recuperados ou falecidos (R). Os dados populacionais foram obtidos do Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estatística (Projeções de População 2018-2020, divulgado em janeiro de 2020) e dados sobre casos confirmados diariamente de COVID-19 do Instituto Nacional de Saúde. Diferentes modelos foram propostos variando o número básico de reprodução (R 0 ). RESULTADOS Dos casos relatados pelo Ministério da Saúde, quatro ambientes ou cenários simulados foram criados em um modelo epidemiológico de RIS, as séries temporais foram estendidas até 30 de maio, data provável de 99% de infecção populacional. Um R 0 de 2 é a aproximação mais próxima do comportamento da pandemia durante os primeiros 15 dias a partir do relato do caso 0, o pior cenário ocorreria na primeira semana de abril com um R 0 igual a 3. CONCLUSÕES Novas medidas de mitigação e supressão são necessárias nas fases de contenção e transmissão sustentada, como aumento da capacidade de diagnóstico por testes e desinfecção de áreas povoadas e residências isoladas.